Newcastle United vs. Arsenal odds, picks and predictions for Premier League 2022-23


The biggest match of their remaining Premier League schedules sees Newcastle United host Arsenal in a game that will have major implications for both the title and top-four races.

Arsenal know they have zero room for error in the Premier League title race with Manchester City already in the driver’s seat. City can frolic in the Championship as it is, so if the Gunners drop any more points, the title is essentially lost forever.

Newcastle, meanwhile, are third in the table, two points above fourth-placed Manchester United, and are feeling good about their first four chances. Still, the Red Devils have the game in their hands, with fifth-placed Liverpool just four behind them, meaning a longer end-of-season slump would threaten them.

Additionally, a Magpies win at home would mark a remarkable successful season, and the scalp of a Gunners slip could mean a significant triumph in front of the home fans.

Newcastle United vs Arsenal match facts

  • Date: Sunday, May 7
  • Kickoff Time: 11:30 a.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. BST / 1:30 a.m. AEST (Mon, May 8)
  • Location: St. James’ Park (Newcastle, England)
  • Official: Chris Kavanagh
  • Last meeting: Arsenal 0-0 Newcastle (Jan. 3, 2023 | Premier League)

Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Newcastle (+150)
  • Handicap lean: Newcastle -0.5 (+138)
  • Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Arsenal

While Arsenal bounced back last time out against a struggling and disinterested Chelsea, the Gunners will come up against a far more motivated Newcastle squad at a hostile St. James’ Park.

Newcastle have been nigh on unstoppable the past few weeks, beating up on struggling teams like West Ham, Tottenham, Everton, and Southampton. Since defeat to Man City in early March, Newcastle have just one defeat alongside eight victories, outscoring opponents 26-10 in that span.

Gone are the days of the Newcastle clean-sheet machine, but they have balanced that with an overwhelming attack that pours on chances. Arsenal are beat up at the back, already missing William Saliba for an extended period of time before Gabriel Magalhaes suffered an injury late in the Chelsea match, and that defence won’t be able to cope. The title race ends here.

Draw Arsenal
Both teams
to score Y / N
Over / Under
2.5 goals
+150 +260 +160 -190 / +135 -165 / +120 +138 -200

+143 +251 +158 -217 / +136 -179 / +127 +138 -185
29/20 13/5 17/10 1/2, 6/4 4/7, 5/4
2.40 3.50 2.75 1.50 / 2.45 1.64 / 2.25
2.38 3.66 2.65 1.53 / 2.40 1.63 / 2.28 2.37 1.58

Newcastle United vs Arsenal: best bet

  • Pick: Newcastle to win & both teams to score
  • Odds: +300 (BetMGM)

Given Arsenal’s defensive injuries and struggles, and Newcastle’s exceptional goalscoring form of late, it’s hard to see the Magpies being kept off the scoresheet. Instead, the hard part will be seeing the Gunners keep up on the road in a hostile environment.

That shouldn’t be a problem. Arsenal haven’t been held goalless since an early February defeat at Goodison Park, a run of 14 straight league games with at least one goal. Even when in a big hole, Arsenal never stop pushing for a consolation, as they did against Man City even while down 4-1, or in the big comeback against Southampton.

Incredibly, at least one team has kept a clean sheet in the past nine matches between these two clubs across all competitions, dating back to a 2-1 Arsenal win at St. James’ Park in April of 2018. That streak should come to an end here, and Newcastle will halt Arsenal’s title chase for good.

Newcastle United vs Arsenal flier bet

  • Pick: Arsenal win 1H / Newcastle win 2H
  • Odds: +750 (Caesars)

If you’re looking for a longshot bet, look no further than this split decision. Looking at how these teams attack games, there’s a clear indication about how this one could play out.

When it comes to scoring goals, Arsenal are one of the most prolific first-half sides in the Premier League across 2023, scoring the most first-half goals with 21, and holding a 51 percent share in the first half, only behind West Ham and Leicester City. Newcastle, meanwhile, are profiling as polar opposite, scoring just 41 percent of their 2023 league goals in the first half, and scoring the most goals in the 71-90-minute window of any team in the league.

And when conceding goals? It’s completely flipped. In 2023, Newcastle have conceded just six second-half goals, compared to 10 before the break, a 62 percent first-half share that’s third in the Premier League. Arsenal, meanwhile, have conceded just 44 percent of their goals in the first half, and that includes the recent early sieve against Man City and Southampton. Overall, they break late, not early.

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