Mexico still have a chance to qualify for the knockout stage at Qatar 2022, but would need to have a better goal differential if they finish tied with Poland or Argentina.
After a heartbreaking defeat to Argentina, Mexico enter the Qatar 2022 group stage final in a difficult situation. El Tri have yet to be knocked out of the FIFA World Cup, but they have a lot of work to do.
First, Gerard Martin’s men need all three points against Saudi Arabia to keep their last-16 hopes alive. If they do so and Argentina lose to Poland, El Tri would secure their place in the next round.
However, if Mexico wins but the Polish national team doesn’t, a tiebreaker will follow. Therefore, it is important for Mexico to keep in mind how many goals they would have to score if they end up tied in the table.
How many goals would Mexico need to avance in the 2022 World Cup?
Mexico would face a tiebreak situation if they win and Poland don’t beat Argentina. The number of goals they’d need to score, however, would depend on the result. This is how the Group C standings look right now:
- Poland: 4 points (+2 Goal Difference / 2 Goals Scored, 0 Goals Against)
- Argentina: 3 points (+1 GD / 3 GS, 2 GA)
- Saudi Arabia: 3 points (-1 GD / 2 GS, 3 GA)
- Mexico: 1 point (-2 GD / 0 GS, 2 GA)
Supposing that Mexico win but Poland don’t, El Tri would be in a tricky situation. These are the scenarios:
- Poland draw: Mexico would need to score at least four goals, because they need to finish with better goal differential or higher goals scored than Argentina.
- Poland lose: Mexico would need to score as many goals as required to end with better goal differential or higher goals scored than Poland. That would depend on how much Poland lose by.
Therefore, everything would be much easier for Mexico if Poland upset Argentina. But then again, first they’ll have to defeat Saudi Arabia.